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Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?

机译:落石灾害的地质和地貌控制:过去的落石如何预测未来的分布?

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To evaluate the geospatial hazard relationships between recent(contemporary) rockfalls and their prehistoric predecessors, we compare thelocations, physical characteristics, and lithologies of rockfall bouldersdeposited during the 2010–2011?Canterbury earthquake sequence?(CES)(n=185) with those deposited prior to the CES (n=1093). Populationratios of pre-CES to CES boulders at two study sites vary spatially from?~5:1 to?8.5:1. This is interpreted to reflect (i)?variations inCES rockfall flux due to intra- and inter-event spatial differences inground motions (e.g.,?directionality) and associated variations in sourcecliff responses; (ii)?possible variations in the triggering mechanism(s),frequency, flux, record duration, boulder size distributions, andpost-depositional mobilization of pre-CES rockfalls relative to CESrockfalls; and (iii)?geological variations in the source cliffs of CES andpre-CES rockfalls. On interfluves, CES boulders traveled approximately 100?to 250m further downslope than prehistoric (pre-CES) boulders. This is interpreted to reflect reduced resistance to CES rockfall transport due to preceding anthropogenic hillslope de-vegetation. Volcanic breccia boulders are more dimensionally equant and rounded, are larger, and traveled further downslope than coherent lava boulders, illustrating clear geological control on rockfall hazard. In valley bottoms, the furthest-traveled pre-CES boulders are situated further downslope than CES boulders due to (i)?remobilization of pre-CES boulders by post-depositional processes such as debris flows and (ii)?reduction of CES boulder velocities and travel distances by collisional impacts with pre-CES boulders. A considered earth-systems approach is required when using preserved distributions of rockfall deposits to predict the severity and extents of future rockfall events.
机译:为了评估近期(当代)落石及其史前遗迹之间的地理空间灾害关系,我们比较了2010-2011年“坎特伯雷地震序列”(CES)(n = 185)与沉积岩之间的落石巨石的位置,物理特征和岩性。在CES之前(n = 1093)。在两个研究地点,从CES前到CES巨石的人口比例在空间上从?〜5:1到?8.5:1变化。这被解释为反映(i)由于地面运动的事件内和事件间空间差异(例如,方向性)和源崖响应的相关变化而引起的CES落石通量的变化; (ii)相对于CES岩崩,触发机制,频率,通量,记录持续时间,巨石大小分布以及沉积后动员的可能变化; (iii)CES和CES之前岩崩的源岩的地质变化。在通气道上,CES巨石比史前(CES之前)巨石走下坡距离大约100?至250m。这被解释为反映了由于先前的人为山坡植被退化而导致对CES落石运输的抵抗力降低。火山角砾岩巨石在尺寸上更均匀,更圆,更大,并且比连贯的熔岩巨石更向下坡移动,这说明了对落石灾害的明确地质控制。在山谷底部,由于(i)通过诸如泥石流之类的沉积后过程使CES前巨石移动,以及(ii)CES巨石速度降低,因此,走得最远的CES前巨石比CES巨石位于更下坡。 CES之前的巨石受到碰撞影响而产生的移动距离。当使用落石沉积物的保留分布来预测未来的落石事件的严重性和程度时,需要一种经过考虑的地球系统方法。

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