ANALYSIS OF THE METHODICAL BASIS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT AT INDUSTRIAL FACILITIES

摘要

Development and introduction of new scientifically based methods of quantitative assessment of fire risk is an actual problem. Normative values of fire risk are established by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation No. 123-FZ ?Technical Regulations on Fire Safety Requirements?. The aim of this work is to analyze modern approaches to assess the fire risk of hazardous production facilities and production facilities. The most applicable methods for determining fire risk in quantitative terms are considered, namely, the Order of the Ministry of Emergency Measures of the Russian Federation dd. July 10, 2009, No. 404 ?On Approval of the Method for Calculating Fire Risk Values at Production Facilities? and Rostechnadzor Order No. 144 dd. April 11, 2016 ?Methodical Basis for Conducting Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment of Accidents at Hazardous Production Facilities?. The object of the study was the industrial site ?State Farm Management of Underground Gas Storage? (Sovkhoznoe UGS). Based on the statistics of Rostekhnadzor for the recent 5 years, the main unfavorable events and the main reasons for the depressurization of underground reservoirs were considered and determined in percentage terms. On the basis of the event development tree, the most probable and most dangerous scenarios were identified, and risk assessment was carried out on the territory of the industrial site of the Sovkhoz UGS. Based on the calculations for risk assessment, the analysis of the methods used is carried out. Having considered the practice of application of calculation methods for assessing fire risks, an attempt to formulate specific shortcomings in methodologies and to make proposals for their improvement has been made. It is concluded that it is necessary to create and further disseminate a single improved methodology for calculating objects of all classes of fire danger.