Macroscopic Factor Decomposition of Non-Point Source Pollution of Chemical Fertilizer: Scale, Structure and Constraint

摘要

This paper builds a factor decomposition model of non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer from the three dimensions of scale, structure and constraint, with using the panel data covering 31 provincial regions in China during 2007-2016, aims to reveal the action mechanism of scale effect, structure effect and effect of restraint on non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer. The research shows that the inverted U-shaped curve relationship between economic scale and non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer is essentially an environmental negative externality in production, as well as the evolution path of the implementation of control measures. Economic structure and resource constraint, each has positive exogenous effects on non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer, while technical constraint has negative exogenous effects on it. Thus, the ultimate effectiveness of pollution control measures depend on the balance of the two opposing forces in reality. In addition, population size and population structure both have no exogenous effect on non-point source pollution of chemical fertilizer. Therefore, implementation of the "source control" mode of pollution control, with optimizing the internal structure of agriculture, transforming agricultural production patterns, making rational use of cultivated land resources, and vigorously promoting applicable environmental technologies, etc., are particularly important.