Estimation of the heaviness of patients’ condition and the prognosis of their outcome with general peritonitis by the method of logistic regressive model

摘要

Two-staged investigations were done in patients at the age from 19 to 85 who were treated in Republican Research Centre of Emergency Medicine from 2003 to 2009. At the first stage for the creating the estimation scale for severity of condition and prognosis of peritonitis (ESSCPP) it was done the retrospective analysis of 422 history cases of the patients with GP (156 died and 266 survived patients). The modeling of heaviness condition of patients with diagnosis GP was made with the use of the logistic regressive model by condition “survived/died”. At the second stage the prospective investigation of ESSCPP in 72 patients with GP had been carried. The estimation of clinic-laboratory parameters, functional status of bowels and prevalence of the purulent process in the abdominal cavity at the first step had been retrospectively done in 422 patients according to 13 independent variables. The result of the prospective comparative data of ROC-analysis of ESSCPP with APACHE II and MPI scales showed that it had the high diagnostic significance in the biggest area under ROC-curve (AUC=0.946±0.013).