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The PICRATE model for fitting the age pattern of first marriage

机译:拟合初婚年龄模式的PICRATE模型

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We present a new model for fitting the age pattern of entry into a new situation. The formulation of the marriage recruitment rate is simpler than in other available models, and particularly useful for computer simulation of the time-evolution of a population. The model has three parameters: a0, the starting age at event, pmax, the maximum proportion of the population at risk p(a), and rmax, the maximum value of the recruitment rate r(a). This model was tested on the entry into first union, and was compared with the widely-used Coale-McNeil model. We applied this model to the case of Zambia, and to a variety of African countries with different features. This model could also be used for fitting a variety of processes, such as first sexual intercourse, first birth, first job, first adult migration, etc
机译:我们提出了一种新模型,以适应进入新情况的年龄模式。婚姻征聘率的公式比其他可用模型中的公式更简单,对于计算机模拟人口时间演变特别有用。该模型具有三个参数:a0,事件的起始年龄,pmax,处于危险中的人口的最大比例p(a),rmax,招聘率r(a)的最大值。该模型在首次加入工会时经过了测试,并与广泛使用的Coale-McNeil模型进行了比较。我们将此模型应用于赞比亚和具有不同特征的多个非洲国家。该模型还可用于拟合各种过程,例如第一次性交,第一次生育,第一次工作,第一次成年移民等。

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