Pascal : La géométrie du hasard

摘要

Even if Pascal's works are often considered as the origin of the calculus of probabilities, Pascal discovered, strictly speaking, only the solution to the problem of departing the stakes, or division problem, and never called it a "calculus of probabilities". He never used it neither to solve problems due to epistemic uncertainty. He only used the departing of stakes in a decisional context. The most famous example of that use is the thought known as "Pascal's wager". This article is an attempt to examine in which context the Pascalian discovery must be replaced, what is the originality of Pascal's statement, and what are the reasons to explain why Pascal chose other methods to face the epistemic uncertainty, precisely where we would use the calculus of probabilities.