Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index Based on Distributed Hydrological Simulation

摘要

Drought monitoring at large scale is essential for fighting against drought. Aiming at the limitation of acquiring long-time serial soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration for Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), the paper modified the PDSI based on distributed hydrological model on subbasin level in Luanhe river basin, North China. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Calibration and validation results showed good agreement between simulated and measured discharges, and the SWAT model can be used to predict hydrological processes in the study area. Then the simulation results of main hydrologic components were used to establish PDSI. The verification of the drought indices showed that the modified PDSI based on SWAT model and Palmer drought severity index could better describe the characteristics of regional drought evolution in the Luanhe river basin. High drought frequency areas were mainly distributed in the grassland regions of upstream located in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia plateau, and the drought area had a significant upward trend form 1973 to 2010. Compared with the traditional Palmer drought severity index, the modified PDSI could reflect the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improve the physical mechanism of PDSI. The drought monitoring method can provide technical support for comprehensive understanding of drought and effective preventing and relieving of drought disasters.