Forecasting Electricity Market Risk Using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)—Based Multiscale Methodology

摘要

The electricity market has experienced an increasing level of deregulation and reform over the years. There is an increasing level of electricity price fluctuation, uncertainty, and risk exposure in the marketplace. Traditional risk measurement models based on the homogeneous and efficient market assumption no longer suffice, facing the increasing level of accuracy and reliability requirements. In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD)-based Value at Risk (VaR) model to estimate the downside risk measure in the electricity market. The proposed model investigates and models the inherent multiscale market risk structure. The EMD model is introduced to decompose the electricity time series into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) with distinct multiscale characteristics. The Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) model is used to model the individual risk factors across different scales. Experimental results using different models in the Australian electricity markets show that EMD-EWMA models based on Student’s t distribution achieves the best performance, and outperforms the benchmark EWMA model significantly in terms of model reliability and predictive accuracy.