This study analyses the energy system and macro-economic responses to emissions reduction in China from 2005 to 2050 using a dynamic recursive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. To explore plausible climate mitigation measures, two socioeconomic scenarios are assumed: Advanced (ADV; active acceptance of innovations and changes) and Conventional (CNV; conservative and passive response to innovations and changes). The assumed emissions reduction target is a 68% reduction from the 2005 level by 2050 derived from a target to halve global emissions. In total, four cases are considered, including two reference cases without emissions reduction and two mitigation cases with emissions reduction. The results, especially in the mitigation cases, are as follows: In the ADV scenario, the GDP in 2050 is thirteen times larger than that in 2005 even with emissions con- straint. The maximum emissions price is $375/tCO2eq in 2036, and the maximum GDP loss is 4.6% in 2035. Electrification is accelerated, and electricity is supplied by various power sources including renewable energies. In the CNV scenario, the GDP in 2050 is 7.5 times larger than that in 2005 even under emissions constraint. The emissions price increases significantly and becomes $1,932/tCO2eq, with a GDP loss of 10% in 2050. Unavailability of CCS technology forces to reduce fossil fuel consumption while electrification is accelerated. Electricity is mainly supplied by hydroelectric, biomass and nuclear power. The results show that there are feasible low-carbon development pathways for China, although great uncertainty exists in China’s future development. To achieve these pathways, efficient and appropriate governance is necessary, and the introduction of new technologies can contribute to minimizing the socioeconomic impacts of emissions reduction.
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