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Fitting tails affected by truncation

机译:拟合被截断影响的尾巴

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In several applications, ultimately at the largest data, truncation effects can be observed when analysing tail characteristics of statistical distributions. In some cases truncation effects are forecasted through physical models such as the Gutenberg-Richter relation in geophysics, while at other instances the nature of the measurement process itself may cause under recovery of large values, for instance due to flooding in river discharge readings. Recently, Beirlant, Fraga Alves and Gomes (2016) discussed tail fitting for truncated Pareto-type distributions. Using examples from earthquake analysis, hydrology and diamond valuation we demonstrate the need for a unified treatment of extreme value analysis for truncated heavy and light tails. We generalise the classical Peaks over Threshold approach for the different max-domains of attraction with shape parameter $xi >-1/2$ to allow for truncation effects. We use a pseudo maximum likelihood approach to estimate the model parameters and consider extreme quantile estimation and reconstruction of quantile levels before truncation whenever appropriate. We report on some simulation experiments and provide some basic asymptotic results.
机译:在一些应用中,最终以最大的数据进行分析时,可以在分析统计分布的尾部特征时观察到截断效果。在某些情况下,通过物理模型(例如地球物理学中的Gutenberg-Richter关系)来预测截断效应,而在其他情况下,测量过程本身的性质可能会导致大数值的恢复不足,例如由于河流流量读数中的洪水。最近,Beirrant,Fraga Alves和Gomes(2016)讨论了截尾帕累托型分布的尾部拟合。使用地震分析,水文学和钻石估价中的示例,我们证明了需要对截短的重尾巴和轻尾巴进行极值分析的统一处理。我们针对形状参数$ xi> -1 / 2 $的不同最大吸引域,推广经典的阈值峰值方法,以实现截断效果。我们使用伪最大似然方法来估计模型参数,并在适当时考虑在截断之前进行极端分位数估计和分位数级别的重构。我们报告一些模拟实验,并提供一些基本的渐近结果。

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