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An extended empirical saddlepoint approximation for intractable likelihoods

机译:难解似然的扩展经验鞍点近似

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The challenges posed by complex stochastic models used in computational ecology, biology and genetics have stimulated the development of approximate approaches to statistical inference. Here we focus on Synthetic Likelihood (SL), a procedure that reduces the observed and simulated data to a set of summary statistics, and quantifies the discrepancy between them through a synthetic likelihood function. SL requires little tuning, but it relies on the approximate normality of the summary statistics. We relax this assumption by proposing a novel, more flexible, density estimator: the Extended Empirical Saddlepoint approximation. In addition to proving the consistency of SL, under either the new or the Gaussian density estimator, we illustrate the method using three examples. One of these is a complex individual-based forest model for which SL offers one of the few practical possibilities for statistical inference. The examples show that the new density estimator is able to capture large departures from normality, while being scalable to high dimensions, and this in turn leads to more accurate parameter estimates, relative to the Gaussian alternative. The new density estimator is implemented by the esaddle R package, which is freely available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
机译:计算生态学,生物学和遗传学中使用的复杂随机模型带来的挑战刺激了统计推断的近似方法的发展。在这里,我们关注于合成似然(SL),该过程将观察到的和模拟的数据简化为一组汇总统计数据,并通过合成似然函数来量化它们之间的差异。 SL几乎不需要调整,但是它依赖于摘要统计信息的近似正态性。我们通过提出一种新颖,更灵活的密度估计器来扩展该假设:扩展的经验鞍点近似。除了证明SL的一致性之外,在新的或高斯密度估计量的情况下,我们还使用三个示例来说明该方法。其中之一是一个复杂的基于个人的森林模型,为此SL提供了为数不多的实用统计推断方法之一。这些示例表明,新的密度估计器能够捕获与正常值的较大偏差,同时可以扩展到高维,并且相对于高斯方法,这反过来可以导致更准确的参数估计。新的密度估算器由esaddle R软件包实现,该软件包可在综合R存档网络(CRAN)上免费获得。

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