Real-time urban traffic amount prediction models for dynamic route guidance systems

摘要

The route guidance system (RGS) has been considered an important technology to mitigate urban traffic congestion. However, existing RGSs provide only route guidance after congestion happens. This reactive strategy imposes a strong limitation on the potential contribution of current RGS to the performance improvement of a traffic network. Thus, a proactive RGS based on congestion prediction is considered essential to improve the effectiveness of RGS. The problem of congestion prediction is translated into traffic amount (i.e. the number of vehicles on the individual roads) prediction, as the latter is a straightforward indicator of the former. We thereby propose two urban traffic prediction models using different modeling approaches. Model-1 is based on the traffic flow propagation in the network, while Model-2 is based on the time-varied spare flow capacity on the concerned road links. These two models are then applied to construct a centralized proactive RGS. Evaluation results show that (1) both of the proposed models reduce the prediction error up to 52% and 30% in the best cases compared to the existing Shift Model, (2) providing proactive route guidance helps reduce average travel time by up to 70% compared to providing reactive one and (3) non-rerouted vehicles could benefit more from route guidance than rerouted vehicles do.