Estimating source-attributable health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter exposure: global premature mortality from surface transportation emissions in 2005

摘要

Exposure to ambient fine particular matter (PM2.5) was responsible for 3.2 million premature deaths in 2010 and is among the top ten leading risk factors for early death. Surface transportation is a significant global source of PM2.5 emissions and a target for new actions. The objective of this study is to estimate the global and national health burden of ambient PM2.5 exposure attributable to surface transportation emissions. This share of health burden is called the transportation attributable fraction (TAF), and is assumed equal to the proportional decrease in modeled ambient particulate matter concentrations when surface transportation emissions are removed. National population-weighted TAFs for 190 countries are modeled for 2005 using the MOZART-4 global chemical transport model. Changes in annual average concentration of PM2.5 at 0.5?×?0.67 degree horizontal resolution are based on a global emissions inventory and removal of all surface transportation emissions. Global population-weighted average TAF was 8.5 percent or 1.75 μg m?3 in 2005. Approximately 242 000 annual premature deaths were attributable to surface transportation emissions, dominated by China, the United States, the European Union and India. This application of TAF allows future Global Burden of Disease studies to estimate the sector-specific burden of ambient PM2.5 exposure. Additional research is needed to capture intraurban variations in emissions and exposure, and to broaden the range of health effects considered, including the effects of other pollutants.