Impacts of Climate Change on Droughts in Gilan Province, Iran

摘要

 Drought as a complex natural hazard is best characterized by multiple climatological and hydrological parameters and its assessment is important for planning and managing water resources. So understanding the history of drought in an area is essential like investigating the effects of drought. In this study at first climate parameters affecting the drought have downscaled by LARS-WG stochastic weather generator over Gilan province in Iran. After choosing a suitable model, the outputs were used for assessing the drought situation in the period of 2011-2030. Assessing the drought was done by TOPSIS method during 2 periods (present and future). After validation of the method, zoning the drought was performed by IDW method in GIS. Results showed that the expanse of situations with lower drought index will increase. Also we will expect more droughts in these regions for the future.