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Inferential misconceptions and replication crisis

机译:推断误解和复制危机

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Misinterpretations of the p value and the introduction of bias through arbitrary analytical choices have been discussed in the literature for decades. Nonetheless, they seem to have persisted in empirical research, and criticisms of p value misuses have increased in the recent past due to the non-replicability of many studies. Unfortunately, the critical concerns that have been raised in the literature are scattered over many disciplines, often linguistically confusing, and differing in their main reasons for criticisms. Misuses and misinterpretations of the p value are currently being discussed intensely under the label “replication crisis” in many academic disciplines and journals, ranging from specialized scientific journals to Nature and Science. In a drastic response to the crisis, the editors of the journal Basic and Applied Social Psychology even decided to ban the use of p values from future publications at the beginning of 2015, a fact that has certainly added fuel to the discussions in the relevant scientific forums. Finally, in early March, the American Statistical Association released a brief formal statement on p values that explicitly addresses misuses and misinterpretations. In this context, we systematize the most serious flaws related to the p value and discuss suggestions of how to prevent them and reduce the rate of false discoveries in the future.
机译:关于p值的误解和通过任意分析选择引入偏见已有数十年的文献了。但是,他们似乎坚持进行实证研究,由于许多研究的不可重复性,最近对p值滥用的批评也有所增加。不幸的是,文献中提出的关键问题分散在许多学科中,通常在语言上令人困惑,并且批评的主要原因也不同。目前,许多学科和期刊都以“复制危机”为题,对p值的误解和误解进行了激烈的讨论,从专门的科学期刊到《自然与科学》。为了对危机做出激烈反应,《基本与应用社会心理学》杂志的编辑甚至决定在2015年初禁止在未来的出版物中使用p值,这一事实无疑为相关科学领域的讨论增加了动力。论坛。最终,在3月初,美国统计协会发布了有关p值的简短正式声明,明确指出了滥用和误解。在这种情况下,我们将与p值相关的最严重的缺陷系统化,并讨论有关如何防止它们并减少将来的错误发现率的建议。

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