AN ANALYSIS OF SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF URBAN MORPHOLOGY BASED ON GRAY LOGISTIC CELLULAR AUTOMATON MODEL

摘要

Urbanization is accelerating across the globe. In order to achieve healthy urban development, many studies havebeen devoted to the expansion and simulation of urban morphology. This study makes improvements on the logistic cellularautomaton(logistic-CA) model, so as to accurately simulate the evolution of urban morphology in space and quantity, and toexplore the rules and characteristics of the evolution of urban morphology under the historical development trend of inertia. Byembedding the method of unequal time interval gray combination forecasting into logistic-CA, the modified model achieves thegoal of accurately simulating and forecasting urban shape in a given year, which capability has been proven by empirical tests intwo forecast years. The predicted result of 2011-2020 is: the spatial layout of Binhai area will gradually develop into a crisscrossshape, formed by the main Haihe River development axis and the coastal development be the evolution of urban morphology willmainly happen in five clusters: Tanggu City Area, Tanggu Port, Hangu City Area, Binhai International Airport, Dagang City Areaand Dagang Oilfield. At the early stage, urban morphology will expand around the five above-mentioned clusters (the expansion ofold city areas and ports is especially fast); at the later stage, the expansion will connect the coastal urban development belt and theHaihe River urban development axis to form a crisscross.