基于灰色GM（1,1）模型的山西煤炭物流需求预测分析

摘要

In this paper, through analyzing the situation of Shanxi in coal production, transportation and railway capacity, we used the GM (1,1) to simulate the total volume of coal transported through the railway in Shanxi from 2003 to 2011, conducted an after-test residual check on the simulation result and then forecast the demand of railway capacity for coal logistics for the next five years.%通过对山西省煤炭生产、运输现状以及山西铁路运力情况分析，运用GM(1,1)模型的方法，对山西省2003-2011年通过铁路运送的煤炭物流的总量进行模拟，对模拟结果采用了后验差检验，并对未来五年的煤炭物流铁路运力需求量进行了预测。预测结果将对山西省煤炭物流的规划和发展战略起到参考作用，具有一定的应用价值。