The Analysis of Deaths Caused By Driving Accidents in Ilam Province And the Related Factors By Using the Method of Time Series in the Years 2010 to 2014

摘要

Traffic accidents are one of the most important challenges of public hygiene that needs global attention and effort. The recent research was conducted in order to determine the crash trend and develop the accident prediction model that leads to death in Ilam from 2010 to 2014. The recent study based on Descriptive analysis was performed by using the statistical data related to death caused by driving accidents in Ilam during 2010 to 2014. In order to determine the related factors to accidental death during the years of interest, the time series was used and the ARIMA model was utilized for analyzing the time series. The data were analyzed by STATA 11.During the five years of study in this research, 21.3% of the dead people are female while the 78.7% are male from the aspect of gender. The results of time series model showed that among all considered variables there is a significant relationship between the type of passage way, the situation of a deceased person by car accident, accident type, and vehicle type, with.fatal accidents (P<0.05).Since the persons who have died in traffic accidents are mostly men in young ages, so organizing and policy making is considered as a health priority in preventing the accidents and injuries. It is also a key tool for safety improvement in the country.