The Analysis of Deaths Caused by Driving Accidents in Ilam Province, Western Iran and the Related Factors by Using the Method of Time Series

摘要

ORIGINAL ARTICLE Traffic accident is one of the most important challenges of public hygiene that needs global attention and effort. This research was conducted to determine the crash trend and develop the accident prediction model that leads to death. This descriptive analysis was performed by using the statistical data related to death caused by driving accidents in Ilam, western Iran during 2010 to 2014. In order to determine the related factors to accident death during the years of interest, the time series was used and the ARIMA model was utilized for analyzing the time series. The data was analyzed by STATA 11. During the five years of study, 21.3% of the death people were female while the 78.7% were male from aspect of gender. The results of time series model showed that among all considered variables there was a significant relationship between the type of passageway, situation of deceased person by car accident, accident type, and vehicle type, with fatal accidents (P<0.05). Since the persons died in traffic accidents are mostly men in young ages, so organizing and policy making is considered as a health priority in preventing the accidents and injuries. It is also a key tool for safety improvement in Iran.