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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Intelligent Information Systems >Forecasting the Saudi Arabia stock prices based on artificial neural networks model
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Forecasting the Saudi Arabia stock prices based on artificial neural networks model

机译:基于人工神经网络模型的沙特阿拉伯股票价格预测

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摘要

In this paper, we have proposed artificial neural network for the prediction of Saudi stock market. The proposed predictions model, with its high degree of accuracy, could be used as investment advisor for the investors and traders in the Saudi stock market. The proposed model is based mainly on Saudi Stock market historical data covering a large span of time. Achieving reasonable accuracy rate of predication models will surely facilitate an increased confidence in the investment in the Saudi stock market. We have only used the closing price of the stock as the stock variable considered for input to the system. The number of windows gap to determine the numbers of previous days to be used in predicting the next day closing price data has been choosing based on experimental simulation carried out to determine the best possible value. Our results indicated that the proposed ANN model predicts the next day closing price stock market value with a very low RMSE down to 1.8174, very low MAD down to 18.2835, very low MAPE of down to 1.6476 and very high correlation coefficient of up to 99.9% for the test set, which is an indication that the model adequately mimics the trend of the market in its prediction. This performance is really encouraging and thus the proposed system will impact positively on the analysis and prediction of Saudi stock market in general.
机译:在本文中,我们提出了人工神经网络来预测沙特股票市场。所提出的预测模型具有很高的准确性,可以用作沙特股票市场的投资者和交易者的投资顾问。所提出的模型主要基于涵盖很长一段时间的沙特股票市场历史数据。达到合理的预测模型准确率将肯定有助于提高对沙特股票市场投资的信心。我们仅将股票的收盘价用作考虑输入系统的股票变量。窗口间隙的数量已确定,该间隙用于确定用于预测第二天收盘价数据的前几天的数量,这是根据为确定最佳可能值而进行的实验模拟而选择的。我们的结果表明,所提出的ANN模型可以预测第二天收盘价的股票市场价值,其RMSE极低至1.8174,MAD极低至18.2835,MAPE极低至1.6476,相关系数极高,高达99.9%对于测试集,这表明该模型在预测中充分模仿了市场趋势。这种表现确实令人鼓舞,因此拟议的系统将总体上对沙特股票市场的分析和预测产生积极影响。

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