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Firm Bankruptcy Probability and Causes: An Integrated Study

机译:企业破产的可能性和原因:综合研究

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The objective of the study is to examine the impact of both the number and types of causes of business failure onthe failure risk as indicated by values of bankruptcy scores during the process of business decline. Causes ofbankruptcy were obtained from court judgments for 70 Estonian manufacturing firms and classified into twotaxonomies–the number of causes and the different types of causes of failure such as internal (differentmanagement deficiencies) or from factors external to the firm. Bankruptcy scores for the first and secondpre-bankruptcy years were calculated using both Ohlson’s model and a local (Grünberg’s) bankruptcy predictionmodel. Independent samples median tests were applied to examine, whether different causes are associated withdifferent failure risk. Findings indicate that multiple causes lead to a significantly higher bankruptcy risk than asingle cause for the year prior to the declaration of bankruptcy. On the contrary, no significant effect of differenttypes of failure causes was found on the risk of failure. Implications of the results for research and practice arediscussed.
机译:该研究的目的是检查业务失败原因的数量和类型对失败风险的影响,如业务下降过程中破产评分的值所表明的。破产的原因是从法院对70个爱沙尼亚制造公司的判决中得出的,分为两种分类法-原因的数量和失败原因的不同类型,例如内部(不同的管理缺陷)或公司外部的因素。破产前的第一年和第二年的破产评分都是使用Ohlson模型和本地(Grünberg的)破产预测模型计算得出的。采用独立样本中位数测试来检查不同原因是否与不同的故障风险相关。调查结果表明,多种原因导致的破产风险要比宣布破产之前的一年的单一原因高得多。相反,没有发现不同类型的故障原因对故障风险的显着影响。讨论了结果对研究和实践的意义。

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