On identifying the SARIMA Model to forecast the humidity of some selected stations in Bangladesh

摘要

Bangladesh is predominantly an agricultural country. Crop agriculture is highly influenced by climatic change and majority of population is dependent on agricultural crop in Bangladesh. The cultivation mainly depends on natural calamities like rainfall, humidity and temperature. Humidity affects crops through evaporation, transpiration and condensation. This paper attempts to identify the appropriate SARIMA model and check the statistical properties of the fitted model for the humidity for selected stations. Finally, forecast some future monthly humidity of the stations considered in this study. The forecasted series is really a better representation of the original humidity series of the selected stations in Bangladesh. Thus the fitted models are used to forecasting the monthly humidity for the upcoming two years to help decision makers to establish priorities in terms of water demand management.