The Presentation of Financial Crisis Forecast Pattern (Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange)

摘要

The purpose of this study is presenting a model for forecasting financial crisis in Tehran Stock Exchange listed companies. To do this, productive firms that had accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange between 2002 and 2009, were selected as the study sample. First the independent variables were obtained based on financial ratios and then based on Article 141 of the Commerce Law, the insolvent and solvent firms were separated. Next, based on these two groups of firms, the presence or absence of meaningful difference between independent variables (financial ratios) of this two groups samples were tested. The results obtained from this test contributed to the extraction of a proper model of forecast using logistic regression. The results indicated that the variables of debt to the equity ratio, net profit to net sales ratio & working capital to assets ratio were identified as independent variables in the final model. In addition, the results indicated that using the test data, the forecast strength of the model is 81.49%, its degree of sensitivity is 96.12% and its degree of identification is 67.48%.