Spatial patterns and prevalence of Hepatitis C virus in Punjab during 2010-2017

摘要

The upsurge of contemporary urbanization has created potential risks for the emergence of infectious diseases like HCV affecting millions of people around the globe. The present research studied the spatial patterns of HCV and its prevalence in the Punjab province for the years 2010, 2013 and 2017. Secondary data sources were used, and district-wise figures of HCV patients were obtained from Directorate of General Health Services Punjab, Health Department Lahore (DGHSP). The data for population was attained from Punjab Bureau of Statistics, Lahore. The collected data were processed and analysed in Microsoft Excel 365 and SPSS 22 for calculating HCV prevalence rate. The spread and major clusters of HCV were shown through maps using ArcGIS 10.5. The results show that HCV has gradually increased in number and expanded in spatial spread within the study area since 2010 and the concentration of disease is found in the north eastern, eastern and central districts of Punjab. Most affected districts are Multan, Lahore, Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Bahawalpur, Sahiwal and Gujranwala. Highest prevalence rate of HCV is found in Multan district with 3.39% hence, all other districts have HCV prevalence rate less than 1%. The study suggests future studies to identify the possible environmental risk factors responsible for the spread of disease in the highly affected districts of Punjab and examine the disease pattern through popular mapping techniques like using hot spot analysis and interpolation method.