Carbon Reduction Policies: A Regional Comparison of Their Contributions to CO2 Abatement in Six Carbon Trading Pilot Schemes in China

摘要

The contributions of carbon reduction policies were evaluated and compared for six carbon trading pilot schemes in China, in four municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing) and two provinces (Guang-dong and Hubei). The carbon emissions accounting method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was used to calculate the actual CO_(2) and the support vector machine model was used to predict CO_(2). Chinese carbon reduction policies abated CO_(2) in the six carbon trading pilot schemes after the comprehensive policies came into force. However, the contribution of policies to CO_(2) abatement varied among regions, and the effect of carbon reduction policy on municipality pilot schemes was greater than on provincial pilot schemes. The largest contribution of carbon reduction policy to CO_(2) abatement was 28.3%, for the pilot carbon trading scheme in Beijing, and the smallest contribution was 3.7%, for that in Hubei. It is crucial to consider “carbon leakage” and a carbon trading linking program in order to evaluate the effects of carbon reduction policies.