Effects of Population Growth on Smallholder Farmers' Productivity and Consumption in Rwanda: A Long-term Analysis

摘要

The study investigates the impact of population growth on agricultural change, particularly on agricultural intensification, farm productivity and household welfare. We use a unique panel dataset that spans a 26 year-period, constructed from two waves of household surveys conducted in the northwest district of Rwanda (Nyabihu). The study finds much support for Boserupian land intensification hypothesis in the sample area. The results suggest that, demographic variables (such as household size) are highly associated with input intensity and agricultural productivity. However, the inverse correlation between family size and annual expenditure per capita warns for a sound population policy in the near future. In the long run, over intensive cultivation resulting from population pressure is likely to have decreasing effects on land productivity.