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Evaluation of MARS for the spatial distribution modeling of carbon monoxide in an urban area

机译:MARS在城市地区一氧化碳空间分布建模中的评估

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Spatial distribution modeling of CO in Tehran can lead to better air pollution management and control, and it is also suitable for exposure assessment and epidemiological studies. In this study MARS (Multi–variate Adaptive Regression Splines) is compared with typical interpolation techniques for spatial distribution modeling of hourly and daily CO concentrations in Tehran, Iran. The measured CO data in 2008 by 16 monitoring stations were used in this study. The Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) and Cross Validation techniques were utilized for the parameter optimization in the MARS and other techniques, respectively. Then the optimized techniques were compared based on the mean absolute of percentage error (MAPE). Although the Cokriging technique presented less MAPE than the Inverse Distance Weighting, Thin Plate Smooth Splines and Kriging techniques, MARS exhibited the least MAPE. In addition, the MARS modeling procedure is easy. Therefore, MARS has merit to be introduced as an appropriate method for spatial distribution modeling. The number of air pollution monitoring stations is very low (16 stations for 22 zones) and the distribution of stations is not suitable for spatial estimation, hence the level of errors was relatively high (more than 60%). Consequently, hourly and daily mapping of CO provides a limited picture of spatial patterns of CO in Tehran, but it is suitable for estimation of relative CO levels in different zones of Tehran. Hence, the map of mean annual CO concentration was generated by averaging daily CO distributions in 2008. It showed that the most polluted regions in Tehran are the central, eastern and southeastern parts, and mean annual CO concentration in these parts (zones 6, 12, 13,14 and 15) is between 4.2 and 4.6 ppm.
机译:德黑兰的一氧化碳空间分布模型可以改善空气污染的管理和控制,也适用于暴露评估和流行病学研究。在这项研究中,将MARS(多元自适应回归样条)与典型的插值技术进行了比较,以对伊朗德黑兰的每小时和每天的CO浓度进行空间分布建模。本研究使用了16个监测站在2008年测得的一氧化碳数据。通用交叉验证(GCV)和交叉验证技术分别用于MARS和其他技术中的参数优化。然后根据平均百分比绝对误差(MAPE)比较优化技术。尽管与反向距离权重,薄板平滑样条和克里格技术相比,科克里格技术的MAPE更少,但MARS的MAPE最少。此外,MARS建模过程很容易。因此,有必要引入MARS作为空间分布建模的适当方法。空气污染监测站的数量非常少(22个区域中有16个站),并且站的分布不适合进行空间估算,因此误差水平相对较高(超过60%)。因此,每小时和每天的CO绘图只能提供德黑兰CO的空间格局的有限图片,但它适合估算德黑兰不同区域的相对CO水平。因此,通过对2008年的日平均CO分布进行平均得出了年均CO浓度图。该图表明,德黑兰污染最严重的地区是中部,东部和东南部,以及这些部分的年均CO浓度(6、12区)。 ,13、14和15)介于4.2和4.6 ppm之间。

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