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Modeling the Dynamics of Rabies Transmission with Vaccination and Stability Analysis

机译:通过疫苗接种和稳定性分析为狂犬病传播动力学建模

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In this paper we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of rabies in human and animal within and around Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Our model involves vaccination program for dog population. The basic reproduction number and effective reproduction numbers are computed and the results are entirely depending on the parameters of dog population, which shows the responsibility of dog population for human and livestock infection. For a specified set of values of parameters as deduced from the data provided by Ethiopian Public Health Institute of Addis Ababa, the basic reproduction number R_0 and the effective reproduction number R_e works out to be 2 and 1.6 respectively, which indicates the disease will be endemic. The numerical simulation of reproduction ratio shows that the combination of vaccination, culling of stray dogs and controlling annual crop of new born puppies are the best method to control rabies transmission within and around Adds Ababa. The disease - free equilibrium ε_0 is computed. When the effective reproduction number R_e < 1 it is proved to be globally asymptotically stable in the feasible region Φ. When R_e > 1 there exists one endemic equilibrium point which is locally asymptotically stable.
机译:在本文中,我们为埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴及其周边地区人和动物的狂犬病传播动力学建立了确定性数学模型。我们的模型涉及犬只的疫苗接种计划。计算出基本繁殖次数和有效繁殖次数,其结果完全取决于狗种群的参数,这表明狗种群对人畜感染的责任。对于根据亚的斯亚贝巴埃塞俄比亚公共卫生研究所提供的数据推导的一组指定参数值,基本繁殖数R_0和有效繁殖数R_e分别为2和1.6,这表明该病将是地方病。繁殖率的数值模拟表明,疫苗接种,流浪狗的淘汰和控制新生幼犬的年收成是控制狂犬病在阿巴斯巴内外传播的最佳方法。计算无病平衡ε_0。当有效再现数R_e <1时,证明在可行区域Φ中全局渐近稳定。当R_e> 1时,存在一个地方性的平衡点,该点是局部渐近稳定的。

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