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Deconstructing Global Temperature Anomalies: An Hypothesis

机译:解构全局温度异常:一个假设

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This paper evaluates contributions to global temperature anomalies from greenhouse gas concentrations and from a source of natural variability. There is no accepted causation for the apparent interrelationships between multidecadal oscillations and regime changes in atmospheric circulation, upwelling, and the slowdowns in global surface temperatures associated with a ~60-year oscillation. Exogenous tidal forcing is hypothesized as a major causal agent for these elements, with orthogonal components in tidal forcing generating zonal and meridional regime-dependent processes in the climate system. Climate oscillations are simulated at quasi-biennial to multidecadal timescales by tidal periodicities determined by close approaches of new or full moon to the earth. Subtracting a tidal analog of the ~60-year oscillation from global mean surface temperatures reveals an exponential component comparable with greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and which is responsible for almost 90% or contemporary global temperature increases. Residual subdecadal temperature anomalies correlate with the subdecadal variability of evolved carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), ENSO activity and tidal components, and indicate a causal sequence from tidal forcing to greenhouse gas (GHG) release to temperature increase. Tidal periodicities can all be expressed in terms of four fundamental frequencies. Because of the potential importance of this formulation, tests are urged using general circulation models.
机译:本文评估了温室气体浓度和自然变异性对全球温度异常的贡献。对于多年代际振荡与大气环流,上升流以及与约60年振荡相关的全球地表温度下降之间的政权变化之间的明显相互关系,没有公认的因果关系。外源的潮汐强迫被认为是这些要素的主要成因,潮汐强迫中的正交分量在气候系统中产生了纬向和经向的依赖系统的过程。气候波动是通过潮汐周期在准双年度到数十年时间尺度上模拟的,潮汐周期是由新月或满月接近地球而确定的。从全球平均地表温度减去〜60年振荡的潮汐类似物,就可以发现与温室气体排放情景相当的指数成分,这是近90%或当代全球温度上升的原因。年代际残余温度异常与二氧化碳排放量(CO 2),ENSO活性和潮汐分量的年代际变化相关,并指示从潮汐强迫到温室气体(GHG)释放到温度升高的因果关系。潮汐周期都可以用四个基本频率表示。由于这种配方的潜在重要性,因此建议使用通用循环模型进行测试。

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