Queueing Based Compartmental Models for Ebola Virus Disease Analysis

摘要

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is a complex and unprecedented epidemic killer disease. Recently, the disease has caused serious loss of life, waste of economic and material resources in West African nations. The most prevalent countries are Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Compartmental models are traditional epidemiological mdels that try to explain epidemic problems through the use of specific compartments that are subsets of a given population. Analysis using the developed queueing based compartmental models for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) resulted in estimates of R0= (2.2550, 3.5264, 2.2325) for Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. R0 > 1 for each of the countries, implying that the transmission and control of the epidemic was unstable and needed urgent intervention. The developed SEILICDR model outperformed the existing SEIR model by 13.10%, 91.76%, and 83.14%, respectively on the basis of their RMSE. Finally, analysis using queueing in SEILICDR compartmental models led to the discovery that, at a probability of 0.4 in each compartment, the transmission of EVD can be controlled.