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The Rule of Artificial Neural Network Algorithm in Geomagnetic Storms Prediction

机译:人工神经网络算法在地磁风暴预报中的规律

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While relativistic electrons can completely destroy a spacecraft when the solar wind-magnetospheric interactions are enhanced, the Dst index is considered to be an indicator of any geomagnetic storm. The more negative the Dst index values, the stronger the magnetic storm. Every relativistic electron event was associated with a magnetic storm, but, magnetic storms could occur without appreciable enhancement of the relativistic electron fluxes. The problem thus arises, which one should be predicted: the Dst index or relativistic electron enhancements (REE), in order to be more logic? and which is more effective for prediction: the use of statistical relationships or Artificial Neural Networks? Reproduction (or simulation) of the Dst index using a neural network algorithm would solve the problem. An Artificial Neural Network Algorithm was adopted in the present study for the reproduction of the Dst index of geomagnetic storms having the training concept “Train to Gain” in mind. The ANN was well trained using a data set of 37 storms of different intensities as input to the network. A well trained ANN would yield an extremely good correlation between the measured Dst and the predicted Dst. The applied ANN algorithm in the present study shows an excellent performance. About 97% of the Dst have been reproduced, at least, for both the main and recovery phases. Efficient forecast of the oncoming relativistic electron flux enhancements (REE) can thus - under certain conditions - be issued.
机译:当太阳风-磁层相互作用增强时,相对论电子可以完全摧毁航天器,但Dst指数被认为是任何地磁风暴的指标。 Dst指数值越负,磁暴越强。每个相对论电子事件都与磁暴有关,但是,在没有显着提高相对论电子通量的情况下,可能会发生磁暴。因此出现了问题,应该预测哪个:Dst指数或相对论性电子增强(REE),以便更具逻辑性?哪个更有效的预测:使用统计关系或人工神经网络?使用神经网络算法对Dst索引进行复制(或模拟)将解决该问题。在本研究中,采用了人工神经网络算法来再现地磁风暴的Dst指数,并记住了“训练以获取收益”的训练概念。使用37个不同强度的风暴数据集作为网络的输入,对ANN进行了良好的培训。训练有素的人工神经网络将在测得的Dst和预测的Dst之间产生非常好的相关性。在本研究中应用的人工神经网络算法表现出优异的性能。至少在主要和恢复阶段都已复制了约97%的Dst。因此,在某些条件下,可以发布即将到来的相对论电子通量增强(REE)的有效预测。

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