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Contagion between United States and European Markets during the recent Crises

机译:近期危机期间美国和欧洲市场之间的传染

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The main objective of this paper is to detect the existence of financial contagion between the North American and European markets during the recent crises. To accomplish this, the relationships between the US and the Euro zone stock markets are considered, taking the daily equity prices of the Standard and Poor's 500 as representative of the United States market and for the European market, the five most representative indexes. Time Series Factor Analysis (TSFA) procedure has allowed concentrating the information of the European indexes into a unique factor, which captures the underlying structure of the European return series. The relationship between the European factor and the US stock return series has been analyzed by means of the dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC). Once the DCC is estimated, the contagion between both markets is an- alyzed. Finally, in order to explain the sudden changes in dynamic US-EU correlation, a Markov switching model is fitted, using as input variables the macroeconomic ones as- sociated with the monetary policies of the US as well as those related to uncertainty in the markets. The results show that there was contagion between the United States and European markets in the Subprime and Global Financial crises. The two-regime Markov switching model has helped to explain the variability of the pair-wise correlation. The first regime contains mostly the financially stable periods, and the dynamic correlations in this regime are explained by macroeconomic variables and other related with monetary policies in Europe and US. The second regime is explained mainly by the Federal Funds rate and the evolution of the Euro/US Exchange rate.
机译:本文的主要目的是发现在最近的危机期间北美和欧洲市场之间存在金融危机。为了实现这一目标,考虑了美国和欧元区股市之间的关系,以标准普尔500指数的每日股票价格为美国市场的代表,而对于欧洲市场则为五个最具代表性的指数。时间序列因子分析(TSFA)程序允许将欧洲指数的信息集中到一个独特的因子中,该因子捕获了欧洲收益序列的基础结构。通过动态条件相关模型(DCC)分析了欧洲因素与美国股票回报序列之间的关系。一旦估计了DCC,就可以分析两个市场之间的传染。最后,为了解释动态的美欧相关性的突然变化,采用了一个马尔可夫转换模型,该模型使用与美国货币政策以及市场不确定性相关的宏观经济变量作为输入变量。 。结果表明,在次贷危机和全球金融危机中,美国和欧洲市场之间存在蔓延。两制度马尔可夫切换模型有助于解释两两相关性的变异性。第一个体制主要包含金融稳定期,该体制中的动态相关性由宏观经济变量以及其他与欧洲和美国的货币政策有关的解释。第二种制度主要由联邦基金利率和欧元/美元汇率的演变来解释。

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