Runoff change scenarios based on regional climate change projections in mountainous basins in Slovakia

摘要

In the study the potential impact of climate change on river runoff in the upper Hron River, V′ah River, and Laborec River basin was evaluated using the Hron conceptual spatially-lumped rainfall-runoff model, which was driven by regional circulation models of atmosphere. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated with data from the 1981-1995 period and validated with data from the 1996-2010 period. Changes in climate variables in the future were expressed by three different regional climate change projections: KNMI, MPI and ALADIN-Climate for the period 1961-2100. Changes in the seasonal runoff distribution were evaluated by a comparison of the simulated long-term mean monthly discharges in the river basin outlets in future decades with the present stage.