基于 SDSM－SWAT的气候变化下东江流域径流预测模拟

摘要

通过耦合SDSM统计降尺度模型和SWAT水文模型，探讨气候变化下东江流域的未来气候及其径流响应。首先基于SDSM模型，将2011—2099年HadCM3模式下A2和B2两种情景数据降尺度到东江流域各站点，生成未来气候要素（气温和降水）；然后建立适用于东江流域的SWAT模型，并模拟该流域未来气候变化下的径流响应。结果表明：未来东江流域的气温、降水量和径流量均呈增加趋势；且A2情景下各气候水文要素的增加速度比B2情景下更快。研究结果可为东江流域的流域综合管理和水资源的可持续利用提供一定的科学依据。%This study investigates the climatic variation and its streamflow response in Dongjiang basin by coupling SDSM (statistical downscaling mode)and SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool).Firstly,based on SDSM model,the future climate date including temperature and precipitation was generated from A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3 model from 2011 to2099,which was downscaled to each station in Dongjiang basin.And then,the suitable SWAT was built for modeling the streamflow response under the future climatic change.The study revealed that there would be significant increasing trends for temperature,precipitation and runoff in the future;and the increase rates under A2 scenario are larger than that under B2 scenario.The results can provide some scientific basis for the sus-tainable use of water resources and the integrated watershed management in Dongjiang basin.