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Empirical Mode Decomposition Couple with Artificial Neural Network for Water Level Prediction

机译:经验模式分解与人工神经网络的水位预测

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Natural disaster brings massive destruction towards properties and human being and flood is one of them. In order for the government to take earlier action to reduce the damages, an accurate flood prediction is necessary. In Malaysia, Kelantan is categorized as a high flood risk area, thus this study focuses on Kelantan flood prediction. This study is to investigate the effect of decomposition for water level prediction by applying Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting model. In this study, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is used as the decomposition method. The best Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) for each input variable is selected using correlation-based selection method. The results showed that the performance of hybrid EMD and ANN is superior compared to other models, especially classic ANN model. The reason for this outcome is that through decomposition methods, ANN is able to capture more in-depth information of the Kelantan hydrological time series data. The resulting model provides new insights for government and hydrologist in Kelantan to have better prediction towards flood occurrence.
机译:自然灾害给财产和人类带来了巨大的破坏,洪水就是其中之一。为了使政府尽早采取行动以减少损失,准确的洪水预测是必要的。在马来西亚,吉兰丹州被归类为高洪灾风险地区,因此本研究着重于吉兰丹州洪水预报。本研究旨在通过应用人工神经网络(ANN)预测模型研究分解对水位预测的影响。在这项研究中,经验模式分解(EMD)被用作分解方法。使用基于相关性的选择方法选择每个输入变量的最佳本征模式函数(IMF)。结果表明,混合EMD和ANN的性能优于其他模型,尤其是经典ANN模型。产生这种结果的原因是,通过分解方法,人工神经网络能够捕获吉兰丹水文时间序列数据的更深入的信息。结果模型为吉兰丹州政府和水文学家提供了新的见解,使其可以更好地预测洪水的发生。

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