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CASPIAN SEA LEVEL PREDICTION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION

机译:基于人工神经网络和经验模态分解的卡巴斯海海平面预测

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This paper demonstrates the possibility of using nonlinear modeling for prediction of the Caspian Sea level. Phase space geometry of the of a model can be reconstructed by the embedology methods. Dynamical invariants, such as the Lyapunov exponents, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension, and the prediction horizon were estimated from reconstruction. Fractal and multifractal analyses were carried out for various time intervals of the Caspian Sea level and multifractal spectra were calculated. Then, historical data resolution was improved with the help of fractal approximation. The EMD method was used to reduce noise of the time series. Global nonlinear predictions were made with the help of Artificial Neural Network for combinations of different empirical modes.
机译:本文证明了使用非线性建模预测里海海平面的可能性。模型的相空间几何形状可以通过嵌入方法来重建。从重建中估计出动态不变量,例如Lyapunov指数,Kaplan-Yorke维数和预测范围。对里海海平面的不同时间间隔进行了分形和多重分形分析,并计算了多重分形谱。然后,借助分形逼近提高了历史数据的分辨率。 EMD方法用于减少时间序列的噪声。借助人工神经网络对不同经验模式的组合进行了全局非线性预测。

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