The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns

摘要

This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.