Climate change impacts on cattle production: analysis of cattle herders’ climate variability/change adaptation strategies in Nigeria

摘要

The study examines the seasonality in climate and extreme weather events, and its effect on cattle production in the Guinea Savannah ecological zone of Nigeria. The study uses both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Climate data of 34 years were used to examine the trends in rainfall pattern and climate variability while household survey was used to appraise the herders’ awareness of climate variability/change impacts and adaptation strategies. Cumulative Departure Index (CDI) method was used to assess the extreme weather events while descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic (MNL) regression model were used to identify the factors that determined herders’ adaptation strategies to climate change. The results revealed a significant spatiotemporal variation in both rainfall and temperature with CDI ranging from -1.39 to 3.3 and -2.3 to 1.81 respectively. The results revealed a reduction in the amount of water available for cattle production. From survey results, 97.5% of the herders identified drought as the major extreme weather event affecting livestock productivities in the study region. In the herder’s perception, the droughts are more severe in recent years than 34 years ago. The results from MNL revealed that extreme weather events, such as drought, has a positive likelihood on migration, at a 10% level of significance, the events has led to migration of cattle herders from the northern part of the study area toward the southern part in recent years.