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Implications of the European integration: revisiting the hypothesis of ‘hub-and-spokes’ model

机译:欧洲一体化的含义:重新审视“轮辐式”模式的假设

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Already in 1994, Baldwin predicted the formation of the ‘hub-and-spokes’ model to describe the outcomes of economic integration across the European Union (EU) implying marginalization of the new EU member states. We examine the validity of this hypothesis by putting an emphasis on Visegrad group of countries (The Visegrad four (V-4): Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) and investigate the impact of the European integration scheme on their export performances. To conduct the analysis, we estimate the augmented gravity model for the panel data of the exports of V-4 with the rest of the world by employing pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood estimator. Estimation results do not favour the creation of the ‘hub-and-spokes’ model, but rather demonstrate that integration within the EU was quite beneficial for V-4 without giving the origin neither to their peripherization nor to the loss of markets of the natural trade partners.
机译:鲍德温(Baldwin)早在1994年就预测了“轮辐”模型的形成,该模型描述了整个欧盟(EU)经济一体化的结果,暗示着新欧盟成员国的边缘化。我们通过强调维谢格拉德国家集团(维谢格拉德四个国家(V-4):波兰,捷克共和国,斯洛伐克和匈牙利)来检验该假设的有效性,并研究欧洲一体化计划对其出口表现的影响。为了进行分析,我们通过使用伪泊松最大似然估计器来估计V-4出口到世界其他地区的面板数据的增强重力模型。估算结果不利于建立“辐射辐射”模型,而是表明欧盟内部的整合对V-4相当有益,而没有将其起源既不给它们带来麻烦,也不给自然市场带来损失贸易伙伴。

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