JAPAN

摘要

Preliminary national accounts data for Q2 indicates that GDP advanced by around 0.4% (q-o-q), an outturn which far exceeded expectations. The expenditure breakdown revealed strong performances from private consumption and business investment, which were up by around 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively, whilst government spending rose by 0.9% on the back of a -0.1 % fall in Q1. The solid all-round quarterly performance follows an upwardly-revised 0.7% surge in output during the first three months of the year, and demonstrates some resilience in the face of global trade tensions, which caused goods & service exports to decrease by around -0.1 % (q-o-q) in Q2. In addition, export shipments of manufactured goods continued falling in Q2, despite a rebound in orders for the domestic market. The external situation remains an acute risk factor, given the ongoing US-China trade war and frictions between Japan and one of its major trade partners, South Korea, where Japanese goods are being boycotted. Tokyo has responded by tightening guidelines for Korean exports. These headwinds are likely to persist over the coming months ahead of October's planned consumption tax hike. Nevertheless, the hosting of next year's Olympic Games is set to boost tourism numbers in the near-term.