JAPAN

摘要

Following a slight acceleration in GDP growth in Q1, to 0.6% (q-o-q), the latest batch of data reaffirms the government's view that in spite of the weak external sector, a gradual pick up in private consumption means that the economy is experiencing a modest recovery at present. Domestic demand statistics for May showed that retail sales climbed 1.2% (y-o-y), the fastest rise of 2019, and that household consumption surged by 4.0% (y-o-y) during the same month, its sharpest increase in four years, thanks to Japan's ten-day holiday. Meanwhile, in another boost to policymakers, industrial production advanced by a robust 2.3% (m-o-m) in May on the back of a 0.6% gain in April, due to strong auto production. Nevertheless, May trade statistics revealed that foreign shipments were down for the sixth straight month, by -7.8% (y-o-y), as Chinese demand for semi-conductor manu-facturing equipment and car parts fell, whilst imports were down by -1.5% (y-o-y) as a result of a -10.5% decline in imports of chemicals. Elsewhere, core machinery orders tumbled by -7.8% (m-o-m), the biggest decrease since September 2018, whilst the latest Tankan survey reveals that sentiment amongst large manufacturers has slipped to its lowest level in nearly three years. With the export sector and manufacturing sector currently struggling, this result does not bode well in the run up to October's planned sales tax increase, from 8% to 10%.