JAPAN

摘要

After a very poor showing in January and a rebound in February, data for March was once again generally downbeat ahead of the upcoming Q1 national accounts release. Industrial production suffered an unexpected -0.9% (m-o-m) dip due to large decreases in output from autos and production equipment, whilst external sector figures revealed a sharp -2.4% (y-o-y) decline in exports, the fourth straight monthly contraction, driven by a hefty fall in shipments to China and South Korea. Despite these setbacks, policymakers can at least take heart from a much needed pick up in domestic demand as household spending advanced by 2.1% (y-o-y) and retail sales were also up steadily by 1.0% (y-o-y). Given the loss of growth momentum and the government's recent downgrade to its economic outlook, there has been some speculation that Prime Minister Abe may consider postponing the planned sales tax hike. The increase from 8% to 10% is currently pencilled in for October, but much is set to depend on the results of next month's Tankan survey.