I've seen a lot of spectacular ups and downs in the optical networking arena in the 14 years I've tracked it. This promises to be another interesting year. Here are six trends I see that will and won't affect optical networking this year: Service providers slow first-half spending in 2009 but might pick up in second half. We reported in our November Service Provider Capex, Opex, ARPU, and Subscribers report that, as a whole, service providers have projected flat or only slight reductions in capex for 2009. Many large service providers are confirming their previous capex guidelines, including Orange (France Telecom), Deutsche Telekom and Verizon. Others such as AT&T announced minor downturns. No matter their plans, we see that many in early 2009 are holding back in the first two quarters but keeping their yearlong plans in place.
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