Shaken or stirred? Terrorism and third-party state resolve in civil war interventions

摘要

Does terrorism against third-party state interveners affect their willingness to continue an intervention into a civil war? Drawing on research examining the impact of terrorism on partisanship, public opinion, and political survival, as well as the targeting of states by terrorists, we link terrorist attacks originating from a civil war state with an intervening state's resolve to continue an ongoing military intervention into a civil war in support of the government. Terrorism can either undermine a third party's resolve, because the political costs resulting from terror attacks are perceived to be larger than the national security benefits advertised in support of an intervention or it can fortify a third party's resolve to continue an intervention because it produces a domestic rally effect that raises the political costs of early departure. Event history analysis of 127 interventions with military personnel into civil conflicts on the side of the government during the 1975-2005 period indicates that terrorist campaigns shake the resolve of third-party states and reduce time to their departure.