North-south trade cargo analysis

摘要

As recently made clear by Ben Hackett, executive managing director of consultant Global Insight, US economic growth is still forecast to slow in 2006, despite a fast start. Because the US is such a big consumer market, on which many export-driven economies depend - particularly those covered in this north-south trade report - it is expected to lead to a global slowdown in 2007. No recession is envisaged, however. The root cause remains US citizens living well beyond their means, to the tune of around USD800 billion on current account last year, 18% above that for 2004, and expected to rise to over USD900 billion this year. Although over 60% of the increase is accounted for by rapid price increases in oil-based products, nearly all of the rest came from growth in the trade deficit with China, which reached USD202 billion last year.