The Political Economy of North-South Preferential (Regional) Trade Agreements (PTA): Exploring the Nexus of Intra-industry Trade with PTA formation for Select ASEAN 5 plus Three (USA, Japan & China) Economies Using Augmented Gravity Trade Model and Panel Cointegration Econometric Methodology.

摘要

The dissertation aims to further understanding of the political economy reasons for proliferation of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); its repercussion on multilateralism and its future institutional nomenclature; and the public policy implications for developing countries on their growth and development.;The dissertation research highlights the fact that in the post-Seattle WTO Ministerial era, regionalization needs a new theoretical paradigm and framework to analyze economic and political effects. Similarly, the increasing Multinational Enterprise activities are facilitated by phenomenon of competitive liberalization and therefore 'may or may not require the formal trade agreements' (Sven Arndt's arguments). For FDI-led investment-seeking developing countries, pursuing a policy of competitive liberalization (or open regionalism) would be an optimal policy mix. Making formal bilateral agreements with various national governments are not only cumbersome and costlier but also don't fit well into the fragmentation production networks or value-chain integration framework. I employed both panel cointegration on the FDI and IIT variables and panel regression using an augmented Gravity model of international trade for select ASEAN 5 plus Three (USA, Japan and China) economies covering the period 1989 to 2009. The regression results show that the level of Exports, Intra-industry trade and FDI in the ASEAN region are positively correlated with its policy efforts. However, the Gravity model results fail to predict the IIT exchanges. Following ASEANs' successful policy trinity in areas of economic, political security and socio-cultural domain, policy makers now need to pursue not only economic liberalization but also domestic policy harmonization and political stability to market their potential geographical clusters'