On the average performance of the adjustable RO and its use as an offline tool for multi-period production planning under uncertainty

摘要

Robust optimization (RO) is a distribution-free worst-case solution methodology designed for uncertain maximization problems via a max-min approach considering a bounded uncertainty set. It yields a feasible solution over this set with a guaranteed worst-case value. As opposed to a previous conception that RO is conservative based on optimal value analysis, we argue that in practice the uncertain parameters rarely take simultaneously the values of the worst-case scenario, and thus introduce a new performance measure based on simulated average values. To this end, we apply the adjustable RO (AARC) to a single new product multi-period production planning problem under an uncertain and bounded demand so as to maximize the total profit. The demand for the product is assumed to follow a typical life-cycle pattern, whose length is typically hard to anticipate. We suggest a novel approach to predict the production plan's profitable cycle length, already at the outset of the planning horizon. The AARC is an offline method that is employed online and adjusted to past realizations of the demand by a linear decision rule (LDR). We compare it to an alternative offline method, aiming at maximum expected profit, applying the same LDR. Although the AARC maximizes the profit against a worst-case demand scenario, our empirical results show that the average performance of both methods is very similar. Further, AARC consistently guarantees a worst profit over the entire uncertainty set, and its model's size is considerably smaller and thus exhibit superior performance.