Predicting news decisions. An empirical test of the two-component theory of news selection

摘要

The purpose of this study is to test the two-component theory of news selection. Its components are (a) news factors included in articles and (b) news values of news factors. It is assumed that news factors have different news values for various media outlets. The theory was tested comparing the empirical (measured) with the theoretical (calculated) newsworthiness of news stories. First, news values of five news factors for national quality papers, regional papers, and tabloids were identified. Then, based on theory, the theoretical newsworthiness of news stories was calculated. The independent variables were the news factors included in these articles and the news values of these news factors. In addition, in a laboratory setting, the empirical newsworthiness of the news stories was measured. Finally, measured newsworthiness was compared to the predicted one. Results confirmed the two-component theory and demonstrated that the chances of news stories to get published can be predicted by news factors and their news values.