Divergent responses of tropical cyclone genesis factors to strong volcanic eruptions at different latitudes

摘要

To understand the behaviors of tropical cyclones (TCs), it is very important to explore how TCs respond to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and natural forcings. Volcanic eruptions are a major natural forcing mechanism because they inject sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere, which modulate the global climate by absorbing and scattering solar radiation. The number of Atlantic hurricanes is thought to be reduced following strong tropical eruptions, but whether the response of TCs varies with the locations of the volcanoes and the different ocean basins remains unknown. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble to investigate the response of the large-scale environmental factors that spawn TCs to strong volcanic eruptions at different latitudes. A composite analysis indicates that tropical and northern hemisphere volcanic eruptions lead to significantly unfavorable conditions for TC genesis over the whole Pacific basin and the North Atlantic during the 3 years post-eruption, relative to the preceding 3 years. Southern hemisphere volcanic eruptions result in obviously unfavorable conditions for TC formation over the southwestern Pacific, but more favorable conditions over the North Atlantic. The mean response over the Indian Ocean is generally muted and insignificant. It should be noted that volcanic eruptions impact on environmental conditions through both the direct effect (i.e. on radiative forcing) and the indirect effect (i.e. on El Nio-Southern Oscillation), which is not differentiated in this study. In addition, the spread of the TC genesis response is considerably large for each category of eruptions over each ocean basin, which is also seen in the observational/proxy-based records. This large spread is attributed to the differences in stratospheric aerosol distributions, initial states and eruption intensities, and makes the short-term forecast of TC activity following the next large eruption challenging.