Single-Digit Global Market Growth-But No Electronics Recession

摘要

Although 2008 is a slow growth year, we are now into the summer/autumn busy season without a disaster. By mid-year, the seasonal upturn signs were becoming apparent. In June, global semiconductor shipments were up 8 percent on a three-month basis compared to the same period in 2007 (Chart 1). Electronic equipment revenues grew 10 percent worldwide in Q2 FY 08 (Chart 2)-a bit less than in prior quarters but certainly far from recessionary behavior. Inventories (Chart 3) remained under control throughout the supply chain. Despite dire predictions for 2008, electronic equipment demand remains decent and there is no huge inventory overhang-totally unlike the 2001 implosion scenario. Large EMS companies as a group reported an 8 percent revenue gain in Q2 FY 08 (Chart 4). Although global EMS sales growth has slowed (Chart 5), it has remained positive for five years.